Will Ankara 2026 go down in history as the birth of NATO 3.0? That is the term circulating in diplomatic circles to describe a NATO in which Europe matters more and America less — the alliance's second transformation after the first, which followed the end of the Cold War.

Could 2026 be Europe’s year?

Last week’s European summit was, as previous summits before it, dominated by the geopolitical travails of the European Union.

The curse of Donald Trump has not failed to make its mark. After Anthony Albanese in Australia and Mark Carney in Canada, Péter Magyar wins elections in Hungary despite the open support of the American president for his opponent.

While recognising battlefield realities, a genuine European peace would not reward but check Russian aggression while seeking to ensure the future security and prosperity of Ukraine. What conditions would this take? 

Illegal drones escalate Russia's scope and policy of intimidation, intended to divide or destabilize Europe in its collective resistance to Russian aggression and expansion.

Ukraine’s future will continue to loom large, but 2026 should be the year of real European geopolitics in relation to the US and China.

Europe collectively faces a binary choice. It can take the blue pill, chose to disregard reality and continue down the path of humiliation, becoming a playing ground for international powers while managing its own geopolitical decline.

Ever since Donald Trump's re-election as US president, Europe has known that it must either support Ukraine alone or abandon it to its fate.