Ukraine’s future will continue to loom large, but 2026 should be the year of real European geopolitics in relation to the US and China.

Europe collectively faces a binary choice. It can take the blue pill, chose to disregard reality and continue down the path of humiliation, becoming a playing ground for international powers while managing its own geopolitical decline.

Ever since Donald Trump's re-election as US president, Europe has known that it must either support Ukraine alone or abandon it to its fate.

The reality TV show called ‘Donald Trump, The Sequel’ continues apace. After the announcement of "Liberation Day" in early April, the world has now entered a new era of a near universal cold trade war, with America as the key instigator.

Europe entered the summer with the prospect of a potential trans-Atlantic divorce, the future of Ukraine, NATO, and trade all up in the air. With their beach holidays beckoning, European leaders can now take a sigh of relief.

European security cannot only be built from the top down. It starts with people—citizens who are aware, engaged, and prepared. Civil buy-in and resilience are not secondary or symbolic; they are foundational to modern security.